There has been much recent debate over what kind of recovery the US economy will see. The question is how will the economy recovery. In past the "V" shape method has held true. I have been through 4 economic downturns and I agree the "V" shape type recovery was always the way through. "V" shape simply means the economy falls and bottoms and rises upon the other side.
One a recent trip to British Columbia as a guest of the Canadian Home Builders Association, I was treated to an audience with Brian YU, an economist with British Columbia Real Estate Association. In his presentation he showed the effects of a V shape recovery on the Vancouver BC. area. It was awesome to see.The market dropped about15 points in September 08 and by May 09 it was up 45 points. And now it is a sellers dominated market by 20% over a balance market. Now thats a recovery. BC has a about a 2.5 billion dollar deficit but expects 6 billion dollars from the 2010 Olympics.
But alas, I digress to the US economy. With the recent performance of the treasury and bond market, the "V" shape crew maybe abandoning ship. National unemployment numbers still flirt with double digits and we are awaiting the next fallout with the commercial market. Not mention the old news of foreclosures, bank failures and loan deafults.
So what does that leave us with V or L. Good news is easier to find than 08. There are economic indicators pointing to a recovery. The stock market recently went over 10,000. Unfortunately the basis for a US receovery hinges on one thing and one thing only...consumer confidence. So based on that premise, I believe we are going to see a wavy L recovery. until housing, small business and investors have true capital returns and consumers start spending we cannot hit the V.
Its the "L" train for awhile. but for how long. you throughts?